UK Food Exports Still Carry a Brexit Discount

British food and drink exporters are still selling materially less into the European Union than before Brexit, despite periods of higher nominal export value. National Farmers’ Union analysis of customs data says agri-food volumes to the EU have fallen by more than a third since 2019, with especially steep declines in eggs, poultry, sugar and horticulture.

The Food and Drink Federation provides a useful check on the direction of travel. It reported that total export volumes fell 11.7% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, reaching their third-lowest level this millennium. EU export value fell 0.9%, including declines to Ireland and France, while imports rose to £33.1 billion.

Volume and value must be separated. Inflation can lift the cash value of exports even when fewer goods cross the border. For manufacturers, lower volume means less factory utilization and fewer opportunities to spread compliance costs across shipments.

The friction is operational as well as political. Animal and plant products require certificates, product-specific customs codes and border checks. A missing stamp can delay a load of perishable goods, while some products, including British seed potatoes, have faced outright access restrictions.

A planned sanitary and phytosanitary agreement could remove many checks next year, but the investment case depends on execution. The decisive evidence will be whether export volumes, not only values, recover after the new regime begins and whether smaller producers return to EU markets.