Alcoa Profit Doubles, but Quarterly Earnings Lose Momentum

Alcoa's third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year earlier, yet the sequential comparison shows why the earnings recovery is not smooth. Net income attributable to Alcoa reached $483 million, or $1.81 a share, up from $232 million and $0.88 a share a year earlier.

Revenue increased 24% year over year to $3.70 billion but fell 7% from the second quarter. Adjusted earnings were $485 million, or $1.82 a share, compared with a $6 million adjusted loss a year earlier. The same measure declined from $2.12 a share in the prior quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items fell to $789 million from $901 million sequentially. Lower aluminum prices and shipments outweighed better production costs and higher alumina prices. The distinction between annual and quarterly growth matters: the business is much stronger than a year ago, but momentum weakened from an unusually favorable second quarter.

Cash generation was solid. Operating cash flow reached $643 million and free cash flow was $472 million. Alumina production rose 11% from the prior quarter to 2.5 million metric tons, while aluminum production increased 2% to 649,000 tons.

Alcoa maintained its 2026 production and shipment guidance. It expects higher fourth-quarter volumes, but planned maintenance and raw-material costs are expected to reduce aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA by about $30 million, with higher alumina costs creating another roughly $30 million headwind.

The investment case now rests on whether volume growth and alumina pricing can offset aluminum volatility and scheduled costs. Investors should also track the planned South32 asset acquisition, whose financing raised expected annual interest expense to about $185 million. The quarter delivered real profit and cash, but the sequential decline makes the next margin bridge more important than the year-over-year headline.