Goldman Sachs upbeat on wealth outlook amid market worries over China’s tighter scrutiny

Goldman Sachs remains constructive on offshore wealth management despite concerns about Beijing’s tighter scrutiny of cross-border money flows. The Wall Street investment bank forecasts wealth-fee income at Standard Chartered and HSBC to rise 30 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, in 2026. It also projects growth of 16 to 25 per cent for Singapore banks. “We continue to believe offshore wealth allocation by Chinese clients is driven primarily by diversification benefits and access to a broader investment universe, rather than tax considerations alone,” Singapore-based Goldman analysts Melissa Kuang and Wayne Wang wrote in a Monday report. The outlook has come under pressure following developments involving offshore trusts, overseas insurance income and other cross-border wealth activities in mainland China. Beijing has stepped up tax collection on gains from offshore investment products, including family trusts, in recent months. Headlines about a 20 per cent levy on overseas insurance policies unsettled markets in Hong Kong and raised concerns about the potential impact on wealth-management businesses. Mainland authorities said the levy was not new. Goldman’s analysts viewed the measures largely as clarification and enforcement of existing rules, rather than the introduction of new restrictions. Their assessment suggests offshore demand may remain resilient when clients are seeking diversification and access to a broader investment universe. For investors, the forecasts indicate potentially strong fee-income momentum for Standard Chartered, HSBC and Singapore banks in 2026. However, the sector remains exposed to further changes in China’s tax collection and oversight of cross-border wealth activities. The balance between regulatory enforcement and continued offshore diversification will remain central to the earnings outlook.