First Solar's share price fell 43% from its June high to $180.13 on October 7, yet analysts' earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 changed little. That divergence explains why Goldman Sachs could cut its price target to $272 and still describe 51% upside.
The operating business has held up better than the stock. First Solar reported second-quarter sales of $1.06 billion and diluted earnings of $3.92 per share. It ended June with 45.1 gigawatts of contracted backlog extending through 2030 and booked another 2.7 gigawatts since the prior earnings call.
The target still requires a different valuation. The source analysis estimated that the stock traded at about 8.5 times forward earnings. Applying the same earnings base to $272 produces a multiple near 12.9 times. In other words, most of the upside comes from investors paying more for each dollar of expected earnings, not from a new estimate increase.
That rerating could occur if policy uncertainty clears, bookings strengthen and interest rates fall. It could also fail if customers delay commitments, Treasury yields remain high or investors continue to discount the durability of U.S. solar incentives. Historical average multiples offer limited help because periods of very low earnings distorted the comparison.
The next quarterly report should be judged on bookings, pricing, backlog quality and guidance, not only headline EPS. A target above $270 becomes more credible if First Solar converts policy support into higher-priced orders without sacrificing volume. Until then, the analyst target is a scenario that depends on both execution and a higher market multiple.