MNX has opened a crypto derivatives venue where traders can bet on the future valuations of private artificial intelligence companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot. The contracts give investors exposure to a headline number, not ownership in the companies, and that distinction is the central risk.
A valuation market without a traded share
MNX, developed by the team behind Manifold Markets and built on MegaETH, offers contracts that expire at the end of 2027. The platform allows leverage of up to three times account funds and does not currently accept U.S. customers. Unlike perpetual futures, these contracts do not charge a recurring funding rate.
The absence of funding fees does not make the contracts equivalent to private shares. A trader receives a cash-settled derivatives position governed by MNX's market specification. The holder gets no voting rights, dividends or claim on an eventual initial public offering allocation.
Price formation is unusually important here. MNX's documentation says its pre-IPO valuation futures have no external price feed before settlement. Prices used for margin checks and liquidation are based on an eight-hour exponential moving average of the exchange's own order book. That design can smooth short moves, but it also means the reference price depends on liquidity and participation within one venue.
What could move the contracts
Private-company fundraising, secondary-market transactions and an announced IPO could all influence expectations. Yet those events may use different security classes, preferences and dilution assumptions. A headline valuation from a funding round therefore may not match the economic value implied by an MNX contract.
Leverage adds another layer. A correct long-term view can still be liquidated if the platform's reference price moves against the position before expiry. Thin order books can widen the gap between a trader's entry price and the price available to exit.
MNX is creating access to an asset class that most retail traders cannot reach directly. The practical test is whether the exchange develops enough independent liquidity for prices to reflect more than its own user base. Traders should read each contract's settlement terms, watch order-book depth and treat the quoted valuation as a derivative price rather than a verified price for private equity.