Barclays cut Joby Aviation to Underweight and a $4 target, arguing factory capacity may lag certification progress. Joby's cash cushion is large, but production scale and spending remain the core risks.
Joby Aviation's certification work is advancing, but Barclays says the company's factory may not be ready for the production rate implied by investor expectations. The bank cut Joby to Underweight and lowered its price target to $4 from $6, putting manufacturing capacity rather than aircraft design at the center of the debate.
Joby reported five aircraft flying and another 12 in production at the end of the second quarter. It also described its strongest quarterly progress yet in the fifth and final stage of Federal Aviation Administration type certification. Those are important milestones, but neither proves that a commercial fleet can be produced quickly, consistently and economically.
The company's financial position buys time. Joby ended June with $2.3 billion of cash and short-term investments, but it expected to use $385 million to $415 million during the second half of 2026. Second-quarter revenue was $38.6 million, most of it associated with the acquired Blade passenger business rather than a mature air-taxi operation. The company posted a $245.4 million net loss for the quarter.
Joby is also spending to broaden its business. Its planned cash acquisition of Resonant Sciences adds defense revenue, qualified products and established production infrastructure. Joby said Resonant generated more than $100 million of revenue in the preceding 12 months and grew about 40% year over year. That can diversify the company, but it also creates integration demands at the same time Joby is trying to scale aircraft manufacturing and complete certification.
The Barclays critique matters because the industry's bottleneck is shifting. Early-stage investors focused on whether electric vertical-takeoff aircraft could fly and win regulatory approval. The next question is whether Joby can source components, assemble aircraft, pass quality checks and support a fleet at commercial scale.
Toyota's strategic relationship and manufacturing experience may help, but they do not remove the need for measurable output. Certification progress has value only if Joby can build reliable aircraft at a commercial cadence and at a cost its balance sheet can support.
The most useful evidence now will be factory throughput, aircraft completed and accepted, cash use per production milestone, and a clear path from prototype operations to paying passenger service. Without that evidence, a large cash balance can delay the reckoning but cannot answer the capacity question.
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