'Danger zone of extreme weather': UN warns of supersized El Niño set to hit global economy and markets

The United Nations has warned that El Niño is intensifying into a “supersized” climate event, with heightened risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat expected through February 2027. UN Secretary General António Guterres said El Niño was being “supersized before our eyes” and that the world is in the “danger zone of extreme weather.” Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, said the pattern could deliver “a massive blow” to communities and economies worldwide. She said drought and flood disruption is already occurring and could worsen as El Niño strengthens. Asia-Pacific and Latin America are expected to face the immediate impact, but global investors may feel the consequences through commodities including corn, cocoa, coffee and energy. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are experiencing erratic weather and drought linked to El Niño, according to an August Oxfam report, resulting in severe crop losses. El Salvador declared a state of emergency on Aug. 25 over nationally affecting, El Niño-linked drought conditions. Indonesia is battling devastating wildfires. In India, a weaker monsoon season is expected to affect rice, sugar, cotton and soybean production. Peruvian officials said anchovy fishing, an important source of livestock feed, has suffered a “devastating blow.” These disruptions could increase volatility in food prices and pressure supply chains. Energy markets also face uncertainty. Extreme weather could disrupt hydropower, wind and solar output, as well as oil and gas production, refining operations and mining, creating risks for supply, demand and commodity prices. The WMO said sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July and 2.2 to 2.6 degrees above normal from late July to mid-August. Subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8 degrees above average during July and early August. El Niño occurs when tropical eastern Pacific sea temperatures rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The naturally occurring pattern alternates with La Niña every two to seven years. A Sept. 1, 2026 image showed low water at Lake Guija in Metapan, El Salvador, reflecting drought conditions.