Global semiconductor equipment spending is rising sharply, but the conclusion that Applied Materials is losing ground requires careful measurement. SEMI forecast total equipment sales of $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2%, and foundry and logic wafer-fabrication equipment sales of $78.0 billion, up 18.9%. Applied Materials, meanwhile, said its Semiconductor Systems revenue and operating margin increased in its latest quarter.
The market is strong, but definitions differ
The source article cites proprietary estimates that Applied Materials' global wafer-fabrication equipment share fell from 20.0% in 2024 to 17.9% in 2025. That may be directionally useful, but investors should not combine it mechanically with company segment revenue. Wafer-fabrication equipment excludes some product categories, companies report on different fiscal calendars, and currency and shipment timing can distort comparisons.
Applied Materials also moved its 200-millimeter equipment business into Semiconductor Systems in fiscal 2026. That reclassification can improve reported segment comparisons without changing the underlying economics. A clean trend therefore requires recast historical data and consistent market definitions.
Company evidence is less bearish than the headline
Applied Materials reported higher Semiconductor Systems revenue and a higher segment operating margin for the quarter ended July 26, 2026. Management also raised its calendar-year expectations for that business. Those disclosures do not prove market-share gains, but they conflict with a simple claim that the company is barely participating in the upcycle.
The stronger market forecast still raises the bar. If Applied Materials grows more slowly than comparable served markets over multiple periods, share pressure becomes more credible. If its exposure is concentrated in faster-growing process steps or timing shifts across quarters, a single half-year comparison can mislead.
What investors should watch
Compare Semiconductor Systems revenue on a consistently recast basis with SEMI's relevant equipment categories, not total industry sales. Watch order commentary, China exposure, gross margin and customer spending on advanced logic, DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. Competitor comparisons should use the same currency, period and equipment definition.
BTI's bottom line
Applied Materials faces a real competitive test in a booming market, but the evidence does not support treating one proprietary share table as definitive. The better question is whether company growth repeatedly trails a comparable served market after adjusting for classification and timing.