North American family offices are embracing artificial intelligence while openly expecting a correction. RBC and Campden Wealth surveyed 155 single-family and private multi-family offices. AI ranked as the leading near-term theme, yet 75% expected an AI investment bubble to burst within five years.
The survey measures opinion, not capital flows
RBC said the surveyed offices had average wealth of about $2.25 billion. That makes the sample relevant to large pools of patient capital, but it is not representative of all investors. The percentages describe beliefs and planned preferences, not audited allocations or a forecast with a known success rate.
The apparent contradiction is still useful. Investors can believe AI will improve productivity while also believing many companies are priced for outcomes they cannot deliver. The report found U.S. equities ranked more strongly than AI over a two-to-five-year horizon, suggesting enthusiasm is greater in the short term.
Private markets complicate the signal
Family offices can invest in venture capital, private equity, infrastructure and direct deals that public investors cannot easily access. Those assets update valuations less frequently and can appear less volatile during a correction. They also carry liquidity, governance and information risks.
An AI theme can include data centers, power, chips, software and services. These businesses have different capital needs and competitive positions. Broad enthusiasm does not validate each link in the chain. Overbuilding infrastructure can be as damaging as overpaying for software if demand disappoints.
What investors should watch
Track reported AI revenue, capital spending, data-center utilization and free cash flow rather than survey excitement. For private investments, examine financing terms, customer concentration and exit assumptions. The strongest evidence is a customer paying for a product at a margin that supports reinvestment.
BTI's bottom line
The survey is neither a simple bullish signal nor a warning to avoid AI. It shows sophisticated investors fear missing the theme while recognizing valuation risk. The practical response is harder cash-flow evidence, not a faster chase.